Current Availability and Future Requirements of Livestock Feeds

Indian agriculture is an economic symbiosis of crop production and animal rearing. The livestock sub-sector of contributes 32% of Agricultural output in India. Land allocation for cultivation of fodder crops is approximately 5 per cent of the gross cropped area. At present, there is deficit of 62.7% green fodder, 23.4% dry fodder and 64% concentrate feeds.

India has 198 million cattle, 102 million buffaloes, 125 million goats and 65 million sheep, besides sizeable population of other species. Total consumption of feeds is approximately 757 Mt of green fodder, 466 Mt of dry fodder and 47.3 Mt of concentrate feed. Bulk of the feed is consumed by bovines. Cattle accounts for around half of the green fodder and concentrate feed, and approximately 62 per cent of the dry fodder. Buffaloes consume about 37 per cent of the green roughages, 34 per cent of the dry fodder and 42 per cent of the concentrate feed. Share of small ruminants is 14 per cent in green fodder, 3 per cent in dry fodder and 8 per cent in concentrate feeds.

Almost the entire quantity of dry fodder comes from the cultivated crops, mainly from cereals as straws. Of the 757 Mt of green fodder consumed by livestock, about 40 per cent (302 Mt) comes from grazing while cultivated fodder crops contribute about 27%. Grasses, weeds, tree leaves and vegetable crop residues gathered from cultivated fields and uncultivated lands such as pastures, public lands, wastelands, fallows and forests account for approximately 33% of green fodder. Of the total 47.3 Mt of concentrate feed consumed by livestock, cereals contribute 22.8 Mt, pulses 3.9 Mt and oil seeds, oil cake and oilseed meals 17.6 Mt. A total of 651 Mt of dry matter (DM) is currently fed to India’s livestock, of which 64 per cent came from dry fodder, 29 per cent from green fodder and 7 per cent from concentrates. Consumption of total digestible nutrients (TDN) is estimated at 334 Mt, of which 60 per cent is derived from dry fodder, 30 per cent from green fodder and the rest from concentrates. Consumption of digestible crude protein (DCP) is 28 Mt, to which green fodder contributed 49 per cent, dry fodder 24 per cent and rest comes from concentrate feeds

The livestock population is increasing at the rate of 1.23% per annum. At this rate livestock population may be approximately 532 million by 2020. To meet out the requirement of this livestock, India would require a total 526 Mt of dry fodder, 855 Mt of green fodder, and 56 Mt of concentrate feeds ( 27.4 Mt of cereals, 4.0 Mt of pulses, 20.6 Mt of oilseeds, oil cakes and oil meals, and 3.6 Mt of manufactured feed). In terms of nutrients, this translates into 738 Mt of dry matter, 379 Mt of total digestible nutrients and 32 Mt of digestible crude protein. As per present estimates there will be shortage of green fodder by 64 % and dry fodder by 24 %. In terms of nutrients the deficit will be 26 % for DCP and 23 % for TDN

Almost the entire quantity of dry fodder comes from the cereal straws. of the green fodder consumed by livestock, about 40 per cent comes from grazing, cultivated fodder crops contribute about 27%. Grasses, weeds and tree leaves and vegetable crop residues account for approximately 33% of green fodder. Of the total 47.3 Mt of concentrate feed consumed by livestock, cereals contribute 22.8 Mt, pulses 3.9 Mt and oilseeds, oil cakes and meals account for 176 Mt Cattie production system consumes approximately half of the total concentrate feed and buffaloes approximately 42 per cent, leaving only 8 % for small ruminants.

Of the total dry matter (DM) fed to India’s livestock, 64 per cent comes from dry fodder, 29 per cent from green fodder and 7 per cent from concentrates. Consumption of total digestible nutrients (TDN) was estimated at 334 Mt, of which 60 per cent was derived from dry fodder 30 per cent from green fodder and the rest from concentrates. Consumption of digestible crude protein (DCP) was 28 Mt, to which green fodder contributed 49 per cent, dry fodder 24 per cent and rest came from concentrates.

Projection of Future Feed Demand

There are two main approaches to project future estimates of feed demand.

First The feed conversion approach: This approach, however, is information intensive and requires projected demand for livestock products, and feed conversion ratios for each type of livestock product. Multiplying the projected demand for livestock products by their respective feed conversion ratios yields the amount of feed required to produce the projected demand for these products In India, livestock are raised on crop residues and byproducts, and feed conversion ratio for each type of feed and product is difficult to get. Further, livestock are multi-functional, used not only to produce food but also to provide draught services. This approach is suitable for estimation of feed demand for animals that produce food. For example, buffaloes are primarily valued for milk, but young males and unproductive she buffaloes are also utilized for meat production.

The second approach is to project populations of different categories of animals and multiply the projected populations with their respective feed consumption rates to obtain the total consumption of different types of feed.

A major weakness of this approach is its strong assumption of unvarying feed consumption rates and their composition over time, which is unlikely to hold in the long-run. In the short run, feed consumption rates and their composition may not change much; hence short-run demand projections can be built upon using base year feed consumption rates.

India’s Livestock Feed Demand by 2022

To meet out the requirement of livestock, India would require 526 Mt of dry fodder, 855 Mt of green fodder, and 56 Mt of concentrate feed, this translates into 738 Mt of dry matter, 379 Mt of total digestible nutrients and 32 Mt of digestible crude protein.

As per present estimates fodder by 24 %. In terms of nutrients the deficit will be 26 % for DCP and 23 % for TDN there will be shortage of green fodder by 64 % and dry fodder by 24%. In terms of nutrient the deficit will be 26% for DCP and 23% for TDN.

India has one of the largest livestock populations in the world, and one of its notable characteristics is that almost its entire feed requirement is met from crop residues and byproducts; grasses, weeds and tree leaves gathered from cultivated and uncultivated lands; and grazing on common lands and harvested fields. Land allocation to cultivation of green fodder crops is limited and has hardly ever exceeded 5 per cent of the gross cropped area (GoI, 2009). Hence, the supply of feed has always remained short of normative requirement (GoI, 1976; Singh and Mujumdar, 1992; Ramachandra et al., 2007), restricting realization of the true production potential of livestock. For example, the actual milk yield of bovines is reported to be 26-51 per cent below the attainable yield under field conditions (Birthal and Jha, 2005), which otherwise could have been realized with better feeding, breeding and disease management. Birthal and Jha (2005) have found feed scarcity as the main limiting factor to improving livestock productivity.

Reliable estimates of feed demand and supply are not available, though some attempts have been made in the past to estimate availability of different types of feed at the national level. Most of these studies also generated estimates of nutritional requirement of livestock as to find the gap between feed availability and requirement. The availability of different feeds was assumed equal to their production; and production was assumed equal to actual consumption, thus enabling researchers to claim that the gap between availability and nutritional requirement is the gap between actual consumption and requirement. These assumptions, however, are unrealistic. First, availability of feed need not necessarily be equal to its production, as the availability may get affected by international trade, especially in the case of grains and oilcakes. Besides, feed availability is also affected by its non-feed uses. For instance, the paddy straw, otherwise a fodder for livestock, is used as packaging and thatching material, and as filler in particle boards. There is also an evidence of burning of paddy straw in some parts of the country (Sidhu et al., 1998; Gadde et al., 2009).

Second, the actual consumption of feed could be equal to net availability (net of trade and non-feed uses), but after a time lag, as there are always inventories or carry-over stocks from one year to the next year. Third, for official purposes, the Ministry of Agriculture assumes 5 per cent of the gross food grain production3 as feed for livestock and poultry — a factor which is in use since the early-1950s when the country was facing acute food grain scarcity and agriculture was subsistence-oriented. Since then, Indian agriculture has grown tremendously. Food grain production has increased from 52 million tonnes (Mt) in 1951-52 to 230 Mt in 2006-07, and production of oilseeds from 5 Mt to 25 Mt. Livestock production has grown even faster; milk production has increased from 19 Mt to 100 Mt and the number of eggs from 1.9 billion to 47 billion. An allowance of 5 per cent of the gross production of food grains as feed, provides an estimate of 10.8 Mt for 2006-07, which given such a robust increase in livestock production, is obviously an underestimate. Amble et al. (1965) and Jain and Singh (1990) generated feed consumption rates for cattle and buffalo at the national level using data collected through pilot surveys by the Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute (IASRI) from mid-1950s to early1980s. Their estimates, however, suffer from two weaknesses. First, the pilot surveys, from which the data was utilized, were not planned to estimate feed consumption rates at the national level. Second, these surveys were conducted at different points of time spread over a period of 30 years or so; hence feed consumption rates obtained by pooling data for such a long period are unlikely to represent neither the current nor the past feed situation unless the agricultural or livestock economy has remained static, which is unlikely.

Feed Demand to future (till 2030)

There are two main approaches to project future estimates of feed demand. First, the feed conversion approach as used by Sarma and Gandhi and discussed in the previous section. This approach, however, is information-intensive. It requires projected demand for livestock products, and feed conversion ratios for each type of livestock product. Multiplying the projected demand for livestock products by their respective feed conversion ratios yields the amount of feed required to produce the projected demand for these products. In India, livestock are raised on crop residues and byproducts, and feed conversion ratio for each type of feed and product is difficult to get. Further, livestock are multi-functional, used not only to produce food but also to provide draught services. This approach is suitable for estimation of feed demand for animals that produce food, and ignore feed consumption by animals that are used for providing services. Estimation difficulties also arise in using this approach because of non-differentiation of livestock production systems by the type of function. For example, buffaloes are primarily valued for milk, but young males and unproductive she buffaloes are also utilized for meat production.

The second approach is to project populations of different categories of animals and multiply the projected populations with their respective base year feed consumption rates to obtain the total consumption of different types of feed. A major weakness of this approach is its strong assumption of unvarying feed consumption rates and their composition over time, which is unlikely to hold in the long-run. In the short run, feed consumption rates and their composition may not change much; hence short-run demand projections can be built upon using base year feed consumption rates.

The past sources of growth in livestock production indicate that while growth in milk production came from both increases in the number of animals as well as their yield, growth in meat production was mainly number-driven (Birthal et al., 2006). Thus, we expected a change in the projected feed demand by dairy animals. Through number-driven growth we got an estimated 122 Mt of milk production by 2020. Note that the demand for milk by 2020 has ben estimated as 135-156 Mt (Delgado et al., 2001; Parthasarathy Rao and Birthal, 2008). Nonetheless, if the past milk production trends were to continue, India will produce 137 Mt of milk by 2020, which is sufficient to meet the minimum of the projected demand. This is about 15 Mt more than that estimated through number-driven approach. This additional quantity of milk will come from yield improvements and not from the increase in numbers.